导读：

10月25日，全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹出席俄罗斯瓦尔代论坛，并发表题为《大国需要培育信任》的主题演讲。

“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部于2004年成立，自成立以来，俄罗斯总统每年都要通过“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部会晤一批世界著名学者、政治家和记者，与他们就俄罗斯的内政、外交等领域的时局问题交换意见。

资料图：傅莹 

本文为全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹在俄罗斯瓦尔代论坛的演讲稿，经作者授权盘古智库发表

很荣幸受邀来到瓦尔代俱乐部。

自2004年创办以来，瓦尔代俱乐部一直以塑造俄罗斯国家的新形象为己任，成为与国际社会沟通的重要平台。

今天讨论的主题是“世界秩序的何去何从”，这也是目前国际关系中讨论热烈但分歧比较大的问题，关键不仅在于对秩序的改革和调整缺乏共识，更重要的是大国之间缺乏信任。

纵观历史，信任一向是大国关系中的稀缺产品。当今世界虽然人类有了很多进步，但缺乏信任仍是大国合作的主要障碍。例如俄美之间，在冷战结束25年之际，很难说相互比过去更加信任多少。

中美关系也常受到信任问题困扰。中国改革开放30多年，与美国建立起广泛的经济合作关系。但最近在南海问题上发生的摩擦让彼此的战略矛盾凸显，让许多中国人意识到，尽管我们与美国已是不可分割的经贸伙伴，但在安全问题上两国还远不是伙伴。

中国人需要重新审视，美国宣称要继续领导百年的世界秩序，对中国究竟意味着什么？

美方要维系的是它独享领导权的“世界秩序”，在政治上秉持美式价值观，排斥其他意识形态；在安全上维护美国的军事同盟体系，不顾及同盟之外国家的安全需求。

在经济上界限不那么分明，这个秩序一方面推崇美元为中心的全球经济体系，另一方面也激励了经济全球化，促使世界经济体系全面敞开。现在在全球治理方面，联合国及相关机构和G20等体系发挥更多作用。

中国没有拟定一套战略来挑战美国领导的“世界秩序”，但这个秩序至少在政治和军事上不容纳中国，让中国很难认同和支持。

那么，美国能做出调整吗？我与很多美国学者交流，答案都是否定的。我记得问过米尔斯海默教授，他给否定答案的同时继而又说中国“要么屈服，要么挑战。”他认为中国不可避免地要谋求取代美国领导地位，美国必须应对。

中华民族当然不会屈从于任何国家，不仅是中国，其他新兴国家，例如俄罗斯、印度，也不会屈从。那么，这是非黑即白的选题吗？是否大国力量变化了就必然发生权力争斗，进而跌入“修昔底德陷阱”？

中国人认同的是以联合国为中心的国际秩序。中国国家主席习近平主席在多个场合申明，中国“坚决维护以联合国宪章宗旨和原则为核心的国际秩序和国际体系”，希望“推动国际秩序朝着更加公正合理的方向发展”。

可以注意到，中方使用的词是“国际秩序”，我们参与了它的创建和运作，是支持者和受益者。这个秩序与美国主张的“世界秩序”有重叠，但相互并不完全容纳。

今天的世界早已摆脱了大国集团政治的漩涡，世界的主题转向了发展与合作。全球化的大潮带动世界市场、资金、技术乃至资源在全世界更加自由地流动，中国在共产党的正确领导下，实现了经济高速增长。

根据世界银行的数据，从1992年到2014年，世界经济规模从24.7万亿美元扩大到78万亿，全球贸易总额从5.1万亿扩大到23.8万亿，新兴市场和发展中国家对世界经济增长的贡献率从26.97%上升到61.4%。发达国家和发展中国家都极大地得益于世界大规模的经济增长。

中国有效地实现着自己的目标，对现行国际秩序框架应该是感到舒适的，但我们认为秩序的改革也是必要的。

我们需要认识到，全球化已经彻底改变了世界的场景，无论目前存在的秩序是怎样的，显然都不足以为所有的问题提供解决方案，有时甚至导致更多困难。

当今世界面临的挑战多元而又复杂。例如，大国干预的做法激起更多矛盾，甚至向其他地区外溢，这些年来，我们看到一个又一个国家陷入动荡，恐怖主义乘虚而入，人民流离失所，教训是深刻的。

全球化也暴露出缺乏治理的弊端，发展和财富的分配不均衡，资本的流动缺乏管理，区域一体化出现退潮。这意味着，初始阶段的全球化需要升级，现行国际秩序需要改进，以适应时代的要求，进一步完善全球治理。但变革应该是渐进的。

习近平主席在多种场合提出构建“人类命运共同体”、建立“新型全球伙伴关系”。中国提出“一带一路”倡议，着眼于培育新的增长空间，用发展促进合作、繁荣和安全，这个倡议正在积蓄活力。俄罗斯倡导的欧亚经济联盟也是同方向的。目前美国似乎有些疑虑，将来若参与其中也能找到合作机会。

如果存在一个共同秩序，那么它应该是更具包容性的秩序理念和构架，最大限度容纳我们这个时代所需要的各种支柱和环节，提供一个大家都能舒适于其中的“屋顶”。当然，这需要大国建立信任，也许听起来有些理想主义，但是毕竟许多国家都已经在开展合作以应对挑战，这个过程就能培养合作习惯，从而逐步培育起信任。

很多人问，中国逐渐登上世界舞台，想在世界扮演什么样的角色？我觉得中国对国际交往看重以下几个元素。

一是相互尊重，特别是在政治层面。这是国家间互信的基础，任何国家都不应把自己的价值强加于他人，各国根据国情探索发展道路的权利应得到尊重。

二是共同安全。各国维护自身安全不以损害他国安全为代价，21世纪的世界不应再度陷入地缘战略竞争或者新的集团政治。

三是合作共赢。G20杭州峰会突出了包容性发展的议题，强调要“确保经济增长的成果普惠共享”。

世界期待中国承担更多责任，也希望更好地了解中国意图，我们需要更多地向世界说明自己，赢取信任，也需要不断向他国学习，以开放的心态去认识、接受和创建新的理念。

 

英文版演讲：

Major Countries Need to Build Trust

Fu Ying

October 25, 2016

Speech at the Valdai InternationalDiscussion Club

It’s an honor to beinvited to the Valdai International Discussion Club.

Founded in 2004, the Valdai Club iscommittedto building new image of Russia, and has nowbecome an importantplatform for international exchanges.

Today we will talk about “World OrderQuo Vadis?”, which is also a topic attracting divert opinions. There isobviously no consensus yet on how should we adjust the existing orders. Moreimportantly, there is lack of trust among major countries. 

In the history of international relations,trust has been a rare commodity. Though the mankind has progressed a lot, lackof trust remains an impediment to genuine partnership in today’s world.

Take Russia and the US for example, 25yearsafter the end of cold war, it is hard to tell how much more they trust eachothernow.

The relationship betweenChina and the US is also often troubled by the lack of trust. In its 30 yearsof the reform and opening drive, China has grown strong economic ties with theUS. However,the recent unpleasant encounter in the South China Seaputourconflicting security interests into the spotlight,reminding many in Chinathat in spite our inseparable interdependence, we are far from partners in thesecurity field.

Chinese people need to reexamine the US’ world orderwhich it wants to lead for the next hundred years and try to understand what itmeans for China?

Am I right to say that “the worldorder” the US claims to lead is a power structure,sitting on Americanvalues, rejecting other ideologies andsupported by a military alignment, whichdoes not take into consideration the security interests of others.

In the economic field, the border is notthat distinct.While it enthrones the US dollar-centered global economicframework, it also encouraged globalization which led to the opening up of theworld economic structure. The UN institutions, G20 and many other organizationsare encouraged to play growing role in global governance.

China does not have a “strategy” tochallenge the US-led “world order”, but when it ostracizes the Chinese political system and securityinterests, it’s hard for China to think of supporting it.

Then, will the US adjust? I discussed thiswith many US scholars and the answer is No. I remember when seeking advice fromProfessor Mearsheimer, he also told me that “China should eithersubmit or challenge” and that it’s only natural that China would seek to replace the US and the USshould counter it.

Obviously the Chinese nation is not goingto submit nor would the other emerging countries, such as Russia and India. Sois this really an “either-or” choice? Does it mean that in the developing countries when peopleare out of poverty and can start pursuing their dream of prosperity, then theircountry would have to move into power wrestling and fall into the “ThucydidesTrap”?

The Chinese have their own view of theorder for the world. What China supports is the international order centeredaround the UN. The Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China “firmlyupholds the international order and system underpinned by the purposes andprinciples of the UN Charter” and together with other countries would want to “make theinternational order more just and equitable.”

You may notice the term we use is “internationalorder”. China is among its founder,is a beneficiary, as well as its activesupporter and reformer.This order structure overlaps, to some extent, with theabove said US-led “world order”, though each does not include the other in its entirety.

Today’s world has longshifted its agenda frombloc politicsto development and cooperation.Globalization has allowedfreer flow of goods, capital, technology andresources, enabling countries likeChina to achieve unprecedented growth thanksto the right leadership of the Communist Party and tremendous endeavor of itspopulation.

According to the World Bank, from 1992 to2014, the world economy more than tripled, growing from 24.7 trillion dollarsto 78 trillion dollars, while the global trade volume more than quadrupled,growing from 5.1 trillion to 23.8 trillion dollars.Both the developed anddeveloping world benefited greatlyfrom the growth, whilecontribution ofemerging markets and developing countries to world growth rose from 26.97% to61.4%.

China should find it comfortable to staywithin this framework international order as it has allowed China to achieveits purposes. But we also think there is the need of reform.

We have to admit that the world landscapehas been transformed and whatever we have today as order and rules are fallingshort of providing all solutions, if not creating more problems.

The challenges we face today are diverseand complicated. i.e., interventions from major countries had caused moredisorder than order, sometimes even spilled over. The world has witnessedupheavals in one country and anothercreating power vacuums where terrorismthrives, and people left in destitution. The lesson is profound.

Globalization has also revealed itsdownside, such as uneven development and distribution of wealth, and the lackof sufficient oversight on the capital flow. Regional integration islosingmomentum.

The existing international order need toimprove to better suit the time and to upgrade global governance, but changesshould be incremental.

Chinese President Xi Jinping talkedon some occasions about the concept of building “a community ofshared interest” and the need for “a new model of global partnership”. China advanced the“Belt and Road Initiative”, which is aimed atnurturing new growth and promote prosperity and security though widercooperation. The Eurasian Economic Union Russia proposed is in the samedirection and the two would reinforce each other. The US, in spite of itsapprehension, should also find opportunities in these initiatives if it one dayjoins in.

To conclude, the key to a common order, ifthere can be one, is to have an inclusive framework that provides a common rooffor every country and cover every concern. This may sound idealistic and can’t bepossible without trust. But since we are already meeting new challengestogether, there is every reason for us to foster the habit of coordination andbuild trust along the way.

Many ask what kind of a role China wants toplay in the world as it’s ascending to the world stage. I see there are a number of elementsthat China holds high in its foreign policy thinking.

First, mutual respect, especially in thepolitical arena, which China takes as the foundation of trust. No countryshould try to impose its own value on others.We believe all countries should berespected inexploring their own path suitable to themselves.

Second, we believe in common security,meaningone country’s security should not be at the expense of others. The 21st centuryshould not witness another round of geopolitical rivalry and new bloc politics.

Third, in the economic field China supports“inclusivedevelopment” which was also highlighted at the G20 Hangzhou Summit, to“alloweconomic growth to serve the needs of everyone”.

While the world expects China to take moreresponsibilities it also wants to understand China’sintentions. It is important that China explains to the world more effectivelyin order to win more trust. China also needs to learn from other countries andto be open to new ideas while developing its own thinking for the world.

Thank you.